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The Future of the Epidemic
The devastation of the epidemic has clearly just begun. AIDS has already sharply reduced the rate of population growth in some countries, and within a few years, Botswana, South Africa, and Zimbabwe will experience negative population growth. Life expectancy is already dramatically reduced in many countries in Africa and has also decreased significantly in countries in Asia, the Caribbean, and Latin America. Goals set in 1996 for reduction in child mortality will not be reached in most countries due to the impact of AIDS. AIDS has begun and will continue to cause dramatic changes in the population structure, which will likely force many children who have lost their parents into the labor force before they finish school. Although there have been successes in controlling the epidemic in some countries, the impact of AIDS is likely to be an increasing problem in the future. Access to treatment
However, most of those living in the developing world lack access to treatment regimens that have proved effective in extending lives and treating opportunistic infections, and the costs of such treatments—which can exceed US$10,000 per year—are well outside the reach of most individuals infected with HIV. Even though there have been price reductions in some developing countries, treatment is still out of reach for the vast majority. Lack of access to treatment has been the cause of much recent global debate between public health activists and the pharmaceutical companies that hold the patents to these drugs, and recent events suggest that some measure of greater access may soon be achieved. For example, in 2001, Cipla announced that it would sell its triple-drug therapy at a reduced price to Médecins Sans Frontières for use in Africa—prompting several major pharmaceutical companies to lower their prices—and the pharmaceutical industry recently withdrew a lawsuit that would have blocked the import and manufacture of generic drugs in South Africa. In the same year, UN Secretary General Kofi Annan called for the creation of a $10-billion global fund to support HIV/AIDS prevention, treatment, and care. Although lack of access to treatment regimens is only one of many complex factors barring progress in the fight against HIV/AIDS in the developing world, many see improved access as an important first step.
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More
than 21 million people have died from AIDS. However, a staggering 40 million
people are currently living with HIV, and 5 million new infections are
expected yearly. 
In
more developed countries, recent advances in treatment have dramatically
changed the perspectives of those living with HIV infection, of health
workers, and of researchers. Many have now begun to think of HIV infection
as potentially treatable, rather than an automatic death sentence. 